Will Podcasting Kill Satellite Radio

I was listening to Adam Curry's interview with Doug Kaye from IT Conversations and Adam was commenting that people are just bored with the current offerings of broadcast radio. I agree with him which is why I became a "podcatcher" early on.

It seems to me that satellite radio just offers more of the same as you get on broadcast radio - albeit in some cases without commercials, but to be honest I don't travel cross-country very often so am not to interested in listeningto the same station from coast to coast.

The other thing is that satellite is a very expensive way to distribute audio content - those birds don't come cheap and they will have to sign up an awful lot of people at $10/month to recoup that cost.

Lastly I'm just not interested in paying $10/month for basically the same content as I have on broadcast radio.

Now Adam has 50,000 subscribers to his podcast - how many podcatchers are there in total then, at least 100,000 would you say? And this thing is only, what, 4 months old. How many will there be in a year? And how many of those people might have become subscribers to satellite radio if not for podcasts?

I know myself that even if I was given a free satellite subscription tomorrow I just wouldn't listen to it, I don't have the time. My listening time in the car and at home and work is already taken up with content I want to hear in the form of podcasts, there is already just too much for me to listen to. Now I don't claim to be unique and I reckon there will be a lot of people in the same boat as me.

Maybe the audiences are different, maybe your typical satellite radio listener is not the type of geek who would listen to podcasts, but my feeling is that podcasts just have to be taking potential subscribers away from satellite radio.